Decision-support and scenario modeling
When a leader is weighing a decision — should we open a new region, raise prices on this tier, hire ahead of plan, kill this product line — the pattern builds a structured model of the decision and lets the leader explore scenarios: what assumptions would have to be true for this to work, what does sensitivity look like, what's the expected vs. downside-case impact. Doesn't make the decision; structures the thinking. Different from generic forecasting because the model is constructed per decision rather than from a fixed template, and integrates with the firm's actual data so scenarios start from reality. The pattern's value is replacing the slow consultant-style analysis cycle with something a leader can iterate on in an afternoon.
Requirements describe capabilities the pattern needs in your environment, not the vendors you must buy. Any system that fills a requirement satisfies it — that’s what makes the catalog portable across the long tail of SMB tooling.
decision_intakeWhere the leader frames the decision and asks for the model.
- structured intake form for the analyst team
- conversation with the pattern that captures the framing
- decision document the leader is drafting
operational_data_accessThe firm's operational data the model needs to ground in reality.
- data warehouse with relevant fact and dimension tables
- BI tool with curated marts
- financial system data for cost and revenue grounding
external_benchmark_dataComparable data from outside the firm: industry benchmarks, market sizing, peer performance.
- benchmark databases the firm subscribes to
- industry reports library
- structured external data feed maintained by strategy team
model_construction_surfaceWhere the model gets built and shared with the leader, with structured assumptions and scenario controls.
- interactive model in a spreadsheet or modeling tool
- purpose-built scenario UI
- structured model document with computable cells
analyst_collaboration_routeHow the firm's analyst or finance team participates in shaping the model. Critical because the pattern produces drafts, not final analyses.
- shared model the analyst can edit
- review and comment workflow
- structured analyst session before model goes to the leader
decision_archive_destinationWhere final models and the decision made get archived for organizational learning.
- decision archive (potentially fed by C9)
- strategic decision library
- structured retrospective archive
- 01Leader frames the decision through the intake
decision_intake - 02Identify what data and assumptions the model needs
- 03Pull relevant operational data to ground the model in current reality
operational_data_access - 04Pull external benchmarks where useful
external_benchmark_dataDECISION Skip if external_benchmark_data not filled or not relevant. - 05Construct draft model with explicit assumptions, computational logic, and key outputs
model_construction_surface - 06Route to analyst for review and refinement
analyst_collaboration_route - 07Iteratively present scenarios to the leader, let them adjust assumptions and explore
model_construction_surface - 08Archive the final model and decision for future reference and prediction-vs-outcome tracking
decision_archive_destination
Structured outputs this pattern produces. Other patterns and client systems can subscribe to them, which is how the catalog composes over time.
decision_history_corpusLibrary of structured decisions over time, with assumptions and outcomes, the most valuable strategic asset this pattern builds.
- leadership pattern recognition
- annual strategic reviews
- future decision-making context
prediction_calibration_signalHow well the firm's strategic predictions held up over time, useful for improving confidence calibration.
- executive learning
- strategy team retrospectives
- decision-quality improvement